The USDA rates each major crop weekly on a five-category scale from very poor to excellent. Analysts track the “good to excellent” share as the headline number. In 2026, drought in the Plains and uneven Midwest rainfall have driven sharp week-to-week swings.

What Are USDA Crop Condition Ratings?

USDA crop condition ratings measure how well major U.S. crops are developing during the growing season. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) publishes them inside the weekly Crop Progress report, released most Mondays at 4:00 p.m. Eastern from April through November.

Each crop gets sorted into five buckets: very poor, poor, fair, good, and excellent. State-level enumerators and county extension staff submit observations. NASS aggregates them into state and national percentages.

The number most people quote is the combined “good to excellent” figure. When corn sits at 70% good to excellent, it means 70% of the surveyed acres fall into those top two categories. Traders treat a rising figure as bearish for prices and a falling figure as bullish.

How the USDA Crop Condition Ratings 2026 System Works

The USDA crop condition ratings 2026 system relies on trained observers, not lab tests. Around 3,600 respondents report each week during peak season. They judge crops against what a normal year looks like for their area.

Ratings cover the big row crops and specialty crops. The main tracked crops include:

• Corn
• Soybeans
• Winter wheat
• Spring wheat
• Cotton
• Rice
• Sorghum
• Barley and oats

NASS also reports pasture and rangeland conditions, which matter for cattle producers. The agency suspends condition ratings once a crop reaches maturity and harvest data takes over.

What Each Rating Category Means

The five categories describe how far a crop sits from its yield potential. Very poor means extreme loss is likely. Poor means heavy loss is likely. Fair means below-normal output is expected. Good means near-normal prospects. Excellent means yield above normal looks likely.

NASS gives enumerators written guidance for each category. Even so, the calls stay judgment-based. That is why the USDA crop condition ratings 2026 figures shift with observer perception, not just with the weather. A run of hot days can pull a state from good toward fair in a single week.

Why the Ratings Are Subjective

The ratings depend on human judgment. That is their strength and their weakness. An enumerator in Iowa and one in Nebraska might score identical-looking fields differently based on local expectations. Because of this, week-to-week direction often matters more than the exact number.

Purdue University agricultural economists have shown that early-season ratings correlate loosely with final yield. The link tightens as the season progresses. By July and August, the good-to-excellent figure for corn tracks final yield far more closely than it does in May.

USDA Crop Condition Ratings 2026: Season Timeline

The USDA crop condition ratings 2026 calendar follows the crop cycle. Reporting ramps up in spring and winds down in late fall.

• April: Winter wheat conditions resume. Planting progress for corn begins.
• May: Corn and soybean emergence tracked. First full condition ratings appear.
• June to August: Peak season. All major crops rated weekly.
• September to November: Ratings taper as harvest advances.

The first 2026 corn and soybean condition ratings came in below the five-year average, according to NASS Crop Progress data. That soft start echoed what earlier coverage found when the season’s first crop ratings landed on the weak side, with dry topsoil reported across parts of the western Corn Belt.

What the 2026 Ratings Show So Far

Early USDA crop condition ratings 2026 data reflected stress in several key regions. Winter wheat took the hardest hit. The Southern Plains saw prolonged drought, and the good-to-excellent share for winter wheat slipped into the low 30s in early readings.

Corn and soybeans started the season on softer footing than 2025. Persistent rain delayed planting in the eastern Corn Belt, while dry conditions pressured the west. This split pattern defined the early USDA crop condition ratings 2026 picture.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, produced with USDA and NOAA input, showed expanding drought across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. That map lines up closely with the weaker wheat ratings.

Winter Wheat Under Pressure

Winter wheat conditions in 2026 ranked among the weakest in recent years. The crop faced a dry fall establishment period followed by a harsh Plains winter. NASS data placed the good-to-excellent figure well below the levels seen in 2024 and 2025.

Kansas, the top winter wheat state, reported large shares of its crop in poor or very poor condition. Analysts linked this to the smallest projected wheat crop in decades, which raises real questions about how a tight wheat supply feeds into bread prices this year.

Corn and Soybeans in 2026

Corn and soybean ratings started the 2026 season below trend. The USDA crop condition ratings 2026 numbers for corn opened in the mid-60s good to excellent, under the strong readings of the prior year. Soybeans followed a similar path.

Weather drove most of the variance. Fields in Illinois and Indiana battled excess moisture. Fields in Nebraska and western Iowa needed rain. As planting wrapped up across the Corn Belt, ratings stabilized but stayed sensitive to each forecast.

How 2026 Compares to Recent Years

The USDA crop condition ratings 2026 season opened weaker than the two prior years for the major crops. In 2024 and 2025, corn held strong good-to-excellent shares through early summer. The 2026 start trailed both, mostly on the drought in wheat country and the wet-dry split in the Corn Belt.

Historical context helps here. A below-average May reading does not lock in a poor harvest. Crops in 2019 started slow after wet planting and still finished near trend. The lesson holds for 2026: early ratings set the tone, not the final score.

Year-over-year comparison is built into every report. The year-ago column sits right next to the current figure. Reading the USDA crop condition ratings 2026 numbers against 2025 shows whether the crop is truly behind or simply following a normal early-season dip.

How Traders and Farmers Use the Ratings

USDA crop condition ratings 2026 releases move markets within minutes. Grain futures on the Chicago Board of Trade react to surprises against expectations. Here is how different groups read the data.

Traders compare the actual good-to-excellent figure to pre-report estimates. A number three points below expectations can lift corn futures. A number above expectations can pressure them.

Farmers use the ratings to gauge regional competition and marketing timing. A weak national crop can signal stronger prices ahead, shaping when they sell.

Analysts feed the ratings into yield models. Firms combine condition data with weather forecasts and satellite imagery to project the final harvest.

Do the Ratings Predict Yield?

Ratings predict yield better as the season matures. Research from the University of Illinois farmdoc team shows a moderate correlation early and a strong one by late summer. The good-to-excellent figure alone does not set yield, but combined with a full season of data, it becomes a reliable signal.

One caution applies. A crop can rate “good” all summer and still disappoint if pollination or grain fill hits a rough stretch. The ratings measure appearance, not final bushels.

Pasture, Rangeland, and Cattle

USDA crop condition ratings 2026 data covers more than row crops. NASS also rates pasture and rangeland each week, and those numbers matter for the beef sector. When pasture ratings fall, ranchers face higher feed costs and tougher grazing decisions.

The 2026 Plains drought hit pasture as hard as it hit wheat. Poor grazing conditions push cattle producers to buy hay or thin their herds sooner. That feeds through to cattle supply and, eventually, beef prices at the store.

Rangeland ratings use the same five-category scale. Watching pasture alongside the crop numbers gives a fuller read on farm-sector stress in any given week. A dry summer that drags on crops usually drags on grazing land too.

Reading the Weekly Crop Progress Report

The weekly report holds more than condition ratings. It also tracks planting, emergence, and harvest progress by state. To get the most from the USDA crop condition ratings 2026 data, read the full document.

Each report lists the current week, the prior week, the year-ago figure, and the five-year average. Comparing those four columns tells the real story. A 65% good-to-excellent corn rating means little without knowing last week was 68%.

State tables matter too. National numbers hide regional extremes. A strong Iowa can mask a struggling Kansas, so the state breakdown reveals where the stress sits. Careful readers watch the shift in planting progress across the northern and southern growing regions to spot early divergence.

Where to Find the Official Data

NASS publishes the Crop Progress report free on its website every Monday during the season. The USDA crop condition ratings 2026 figures also appear through the agency’s Quick Stats database, which allows historical comparison.

For context on the reporting agency, the National Agricultural Statistics Service Wikipedia page outlines its history and survey methods. Many market data services also republish the numbers minutes after release.

Key Factors Shaping the 2026 Ratings

Several forces drive the USDA crop condition ratings 2026 trend line this year. Weather leads, but it is not the only factor.

Drought: The Plains drought remains the dominant story. Expanding dryness in wheat country pulled early ratings lower.

Excess moisture: The eastern Corn Belt saw the opposite problem. Heavy spring rain delayed planting and stressed young plants.

Planting timing: Late planting can lower early ratings, since delayed crops face more risk during summer heat.

Input decisions: Fertilizer timing and seed choices shape how crops handle stress, feeding into the weekly scores.

Keeping up with the direction of federal farm policy under the current administration also helps readers understand the backdrop, since support programs and trade moves affect what growers plant and how much risk they take.

Common Mistakes When Reading the Ratings

Readers often misread USDA crop condition ratings 2026 data. Avoid these traps.

First, do not fixate on a single week. Weather noise creates swings that reverse fast. The trend across several weeks tells the truer story.

Second, do not ignore state tables. The national figure averages out real regional pain. A calm headline can hide a crisis in one growing region.

Third, do not treat ratings as a yield guarantee. They measure current appearance, not final output. Pollination and grain fill still decide the harvest.

FAQs

When Does USDA Release Crop Condition Ratings?

NASS releases the ratings every Monday at 4:00 p.m. Eastern during the growing season. When a federal holiday falls on Monday, the report shifts to Tuesday. Reporting runs roughly from early April through late November.

Which Crops Get Rated First Each Year?

Winter wheat comes first. NASS resumes winter wheat condition ratings in early April, before spring planting finishes. Corn and soybean ratings follow once enough acres emerge, usually by mid to late May.

Are the Ratings Ever Revised?

Individual weekly ratings are not revised after release. Each week stands as its own snapshot. Later reports simply add a new data point, so the trend builds week by week rather than through corrections.

How Accurate Are the Ratings for Predicting Prices?

The ratings move prices most when they surprise the market. A figure that matches expectations rarely shifts futures much. A surprise of a few points against the pre-report estimate can swing corn or soybean futures the same day.

What to Watch Next

The USDA crop condition ratings 2026 season still has key turning points ahead. Corn pollination in July and soybean pod fill in August will drive the most important readings of the year. Watch the good-to-excellent trend through those weeks, not any single number.

Winter wheat harvest results will confirm whether the weak spring ratings translated into a small crop. And the Plains drought outlook remains the variable that could swing prices most. Check the NASS Crop Progress report each Monday, compare all four data columns, and read the state tables for the full picture.

The post USDA Crop Condition Ratings 2026: Weekly Ratings, Trends, and Key Updates appeared first on Tomaro Group.

Trump farming policies 2026 center on tariff-funded farm aid, a China soybean deal, and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s higher reference prices. USDA also eased crop insurance deadlines and H-2A labor costs this year.

What Are the Trump Farming Policies 2026 Farmers Are Dealing With Right Now?

Farmers face four moving pieces this year. Tariffs on imports and exports. A multibillion-dollar aid program. New farm bill provisions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. And shifting rules on hiring foreign labor.

Trump farming policies 2026 tie these pieces together through USDA. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has run point on nearly every announcement, from December’s bridge payments to August’s crop insurance extensions. The administration frames these moves as support for a sector squeezed by input costs and trade disruption. Critics, including watchdog groups like the Environmental Working Group, argue the benefits skew toward the largest farms.

Either way, the practical effect is the same. Producers now need to track tariff schedules, USDA payment deadlines, and labor rules at the same time, a load reflected across broader coverage of the farm economy this year.

Tariffs and Trade Deals Driving Trump Farming Policies 2026

Tariffs sit at the center of Trump farming policies 2026. President Trump has used tariff revenue directly to fund farmer relief, telling reporters the money for the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program came from what “tariffs are taking in.”

The tariffs themselves cut both ways. Renewed tariffs on agricultural products have squeezed farm profits even as the administration argues they protect domestic markets long-term. Fertilizer, fuel, and machinery costs climbed through spring 2026, partly tied to shipping disruptions connected to the conflict with Iran.

Rural support for the president has softened as a result. Trump’s approval rating among rural Americans fell to 50% in June 2026, down from 60% in February 2025, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. That decline shows up directly in how farm groups talk about Trump farming policies 2026: grateful for the aid, uneasy about the trade war that made the aid necessary.

The China Soybean Deal Inside Trump Farming Policies 2026

China’s soybean purchases are the clearest trade win inside Trump farming policies 2026. Following the October 2025 Trump-Xi summit, China agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028.

Follow-through has been uneven. Soybean prices are up slightly from 2025 and China is placing orders again, but USDA data shows purchases still have a long way to go before reaching pre-trade war levels. By May 2026, the administration expanded the agreement further. China agreed to buy US agricultural products, including beef and poultry, at an annualized rate of $17 billion per year for 2026 through 2028, with market access restored for American beef and poultry from bird-flu-free states, part of a pattern in China’s renewed grain purchases that farm groups are still watching closely.

Farm groups welcomed the news with caveats. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig called the deal a meaningful impact for farmers “feeling the pain of a tough farm economy,” while urging continued work to open new markets and grow domestic use of soybean products. That mixed reaction, relief paired with wariness, defines how most producers now describe Trump farming policies 2026 around trade.

Farm Aid Payments Under Trump Farming Policies 2026

Direct payments are the most visible part of Trump farming policies 2026. On December 8, 2025, USDA announced $12 billion in one-time Farmer Bridge Payments, with $11 billion going to producers of crops like corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton, and rice, and $1 billion set aside for specialty crops. Payments were released by February 28, 2026, after farmers finalized their 2025 acreage reports by December 19.

That was not the end of it. The administration later requested another $11 billion, with $10 billion going to row and specialty crop farmers for crops planted in 2026 and $1.1 billion reserved for Florida farmers hit by winter storms. Combined with existing programs, total federal payments could reach roughly 33% of farm income in 2026, the highest share of direct payments since 2001, a shift that shows up clearly in this year’s farm income outlook for the Corn Belt.

Not everyone gets an equal share under Trump farming policies 2026. An Environmental Working Group analysis found that farms growing more than 1,000 acres of corn make up just 6.3% of corn farms but were projected to collect 39.9% of all corn payments. Smaller operations have felt the opposite pressure. Roughly 15,000 farms went out of business in 2025, most of them small operations, EWG reported, even as aid dollars flowed to the largest producers.

USDA has also targeted specialty crops separately. In February 2026, the department announced a $1 billion Assistance for Specialty Crop Farmers program covering crops and sugar not included in the broader row-crop payments.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act and Trump Farming Policies 2026

Legislation, not just executive action, underpins Trump farming policies 2026. Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, and its farm provisions took effect through the 2026 crop year. Statutory reference prices increased 10 to 20 percent for all farm program crops beginning with the 2025 crop year and running through 2031.

The bill reworked base acreage too. For the first time in over a decade, USDA is allowing up to 30 million new base acres for farms with a history of producing program crops but no existing base acres, using planting history from 2019 to 2023. The commodity payment limit also rose from $125,000 to $155,000, with future increases tied to inflation.

Dairy producers got specific relief as well. The Dairy Margin Coverage program’s Tier I eligibility grew from 5 million to 6 million pounds per farm, and producers who commit to multiyear coverage now receive a 25% premium discount.

Reference Prices and Crop Insurance Changes Under Trump Farming Policies 2026

Crop insurance sits at the technical core of Trump farming policies 2026. Estimated effective reference prices for the 2026/27 crop year run about $4.42 per bushel for corn, $10.71 for soybeans, and $6.35 for wheat. USDA finalized 2026 spring crop insurance prices at roughly $4.62 per bushel for corn, $11.09 for soybeans, and $6.19 for wheat.

Coverage options expanded too. The legislation raised the maximum coverage level for area-based insurance plans to 95% and increased the premium subsidy for those plans from 65% to 80%, while also letting ARC-enrolled producers purchase Supplemental Coverage Option coverage previously limited to PLC enrollees. Farmers must still actively elect between ARC and PLC for the 2026 crop year, unlike 2025 when the higher payment was applied automatically.

Labor and Immigration Rules Inside Trump Farming Policies 2026

Labor policy is the most contested piece of Trump farming policies 2026. Mass deportation efforts strained harvest crews through early 2026. Executive orders issued in January 2026 declared a national border emergency and expanded ICE’s 287(g) program to over 200 local jurisdictions, with removals projected to exceed 1.5 million for the year. California’s Central Valley strawberry and almond growers lost up to 30% of their harvest crews between January and March 2026 due to workplace raids and traffic stops.

USDA responded by loosening the H-2A visa program, the decades-old channel that lets US employers bring in temporary foreign farmworkers. Hourly rates for H-2A workers were lowered by $1 to $7 depending on the state, and farmers gained the ability to count housing toward worker compensation. Secretary Rollins defended the shift directly, saying the administration was “utilizing all the tools available to ensure farmers have what they need to be successful.”

The wage cut drew legal pushback. A new interim rule split H-2A workers into two tiers, classifying 92% of farmworkers as “unskilled” and setting their pay near the 17th percentile of average wages. The United Farm Workers sued in the U.S. District Court for Eastern California, and a Trump administration attorney conceded at a Fresno hearing that “there aren’t enough Americans to take these jobs” while defending the pay cut.

ICE enforcement on farms itself has eased since late 2025. The administration lifted tariffs on some foreign food products, including bananas, beef, coffee, and tomatoes, while worksite raids on farms slowed even as enforcement continued elsewhere. Julia Gelatt of the Migration Policy Institute described the shift as a quiet acknowledgment that agriculture needs the workers it once targeted for removal. This labor tension, cheaper H-2A access paired with continued deportation risk, is one of the least resolved parts of Trump farming policies 2026 heading into the fall harvest.

What USDA’s August 2026 Moves Mean for Trump Farming Policies 2026

The newest chapter of Trump farming policies 2026 arrived at Minnesota Farmfest. On August 4, 2026, Secretary Rollins announced that USDA’s Risk Management Agency would give producers up to 60 additional days to pay crop insurance premiums for billing dates between July 1 and September 30, 2026, with interest waived during that window.

USDA also restored an option farmers had lost. Rollins said the agency is reinstating the buy-up coverage option for prevented planting, which lets producers pay a slightly higher premium to qualify for an indemnity payment 5% above the basic coverage level. USDA had eliminated that option the previous November, a decision that drew backlash from farmers in Arkansas and the Dakotas.

Rollins tied the announcement to a broader message. “When I travel across farm country, I hear the same message over and over: producers want a USDA that works for them,” she said, framing the changes as evidence that Trump farming policies 2026 are responsive to feedback from the field, even as the Senate Agriculture Committee separately works toward a full 2026 farm bill.

FAQs

What do Trump farming policies 2026 actually include?

They include tariff-funded farm aid, trade deals with China on soybeans and livestock products, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s farm program changes, and revised H-2A labor rules.

How much farm aid has USDA paid out in 2026?

USDA distributed $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Payments by February 2026 and requested another $11 billion for row and specialty crops planted this year, plus $1 billion in separate specialty crop assistance.

Is China still buying US soybeans under the 2026 trade deal?

Yes, but below target. China committed to 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, and purchases were running ahead of last year’s pace by mid-2026, though still short of pre-trade-war volumes.

Did H-2A visa costs go up or down in 2026?

Down. USDA lowered hourly wage requirements by $1 to $7 depending on the state and allowed housing costs to count toward worker compensation.

What is the new crop insurance deadline extension?

USDA gave producers 60 extra days to pay premiums billed between July 1 and September 30, 2026, with interest waived during the extension.

Where This Leaves Us

Trump farming policies 2026 hand producers more federal support than any year since 2001, but with real strings attached. Tariffs created the pain the aid is meant to offset. Labor rules cut costs while inviting lawsuits. Watch the September 2026 China purchase deadline and the pending 2026 farm bill for the next signals on where this heads.

The post Trump Farming Policies 2026: What Farmers Need to Know About New Agricultural Changes appeared first on Tomaro Group.

Trump farming policies in 2026 rest on three pillars: a $12 billion bridge payment for row crop farmers, roughly $66 billion in new farm bill spending through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and a China trade deal reopening soybean exports. Relief is flowing. Structural problems remain.

What Are the Main Trump Farming Policies in 2026?

The main Trump farming policies in 2026 combine direct cash aid, stronger safety net programs, and aggressive trade negotiation. The administration frames this as a “Farmers First” agenda. In my reporting on this sector, the strategy is clear: cushion the near-term pain from tariffs while pushing long-term structural changes through the farm safety net.

Three moving parts drive it. Direct payments give immediate cash. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act rewrites program formulas. Trade deals aim to rebuild export markets that tariffs disrupted. Each piece matters for a different reason.

The $12 Billion Farmer Bridge Payments

On December 8, 2025, President Trump and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced $12 billion in one-time Farmer Bridge Payments. The goal was immediate relief for producers hit by market disruptions and high input costs.

Up to $11 billion runs through the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program. It covers row crop producers growing corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sorghum, rice, peanuts, and more than a dozen other commodities. The USDA released these payments to qualifying farmers by February 28, 2026. The remaining $1 billion was set aside for specialty crops and sugar.

The FBA uses a uniform formula to cover a portion of modeled 2025 crop-year losses. Crop insurance linkage was not required. This is a large part of the broader Trump farming policies push, and it echoes the Market Facilitation Program from Trump’s first term.

Who Actually Gets the Money?

Most of the payment money flows to the largest farms. That is the pattern the data shows. An Environmental Working Group analysis projected that nearly 40% of the $11 billion bridge payment would go to farms growing more than 1,000 acres of commodity crops.

The imbalance is sharpest in corn. Farms growing more than 1,000 acres of corn make up just 6.3% of corn growers. EWG projects they will collect 39.9% of all corn payments. Critics argue this speeds up farm consolidation and squeezes small operators. The national average U.S. farm household income was $159,334 in 2024, well above the national mean, which fuels the debate over who deserves aid.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the Farm Safety Net

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed July 4, 2025, is the biggest structural change in Trump farming policies. The Congressional Budget Office projects it adds about $65.6 billion in agriculture spending over ten years. That makes it the largest farm program investment since 2002.

Here is what changed for the 2026 crop year:

• Reference prices rose 10% to 21% for major commodities like corn, soybeans, and wheat under the ARC and PLC programs. Some crops, like cotton, peanuts, and rice, saw even larger gains.
• Base acres expanded. Up to 30 million new base acres can be added nationwide, based on 2019–2023 planting history. This raises total base acres from roughly 274 million to about 304 million.
• Payment limits increased from $125,000 to $155,000 per individual, indexed to inflation.
• Crop insurance subsidies grew by 3 to 5 percentage points across coverage levels.
• Dairy Margin Coverage Tier I eligibility rose from 5 million to 6 million pounds.

Farmers must make a new ARC or PLC election for the 2026 crop year through the Farm Service Agency. Miss the election, and the covered commodity loses payment eligibility for 2026. FSA began mailing Base Allocation Summaries on June 1, 2026.

How Do Tariffs Affect Farmers Under These Policies?

Tariffs cut both ways for farmers, and that tension sits at the center of Trump farming policies. Trump’s tariffs opened new leverage in trade talks. They also raised the cost of imported equipment, seed, and chemicals, and they triggered retaliation that closed export markets.

The clearest example is soybeans. China stopped buying U.S. soybeans in 2025 during tariff negotiations. It turned to South American suppliers instead. U.S. soybean exports to China fell 75% in 2025 compared to 2024, according to former USDA chief economist Joseph Glauber. That is why the bridge payments exist. The administration is compensating farmers partly for disruption its own trade actions helped create.

The China Trade Deal and Soybean Recovery

The China deal is the trade centerpiece of Trump farming policies. After the Trump-Xi summit in May 2026, the White House said China agreed to buy at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually for 2026, 2027, and 2028. That sits on top of a commitment to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of soybeans each year through 2028.

Buying has restarted. On July 8, 2026, the USDA reported China bought 472,000 metric tons of soybeans, the largest daily sale since November 2025. Exports to China from January through March were up 57% over the prior year.

Still, the recovery is partial. China accounted for less than 30% of U.S. soybean exports through March, roughly half its historical share. Beijing has not publicly confirmed the $17 billion figure. Analyst Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing noted China is buying what it committed to, not new demand beyond that. These grain market swings tie directly into how China’s agricultural commitments move commodity prices for U.S. growers.

Biofuels and the Renewable Fuel Standard

Biofuel policy is a quieter but important piece of Trump farming policies. The administration backs the Renewable Fuel Standard as a demand driver for corn and soybeans. In September 2025, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin proposed revised Renewable Fuel Standard RVOs for 2026 and 2027. The EPA also kept year-round E15 sales available, which supports corn demand at the pump.

Do These Policies Actually Help Farmers Break Even?

For many farmers, the answer is not yet. Prices improved in 2026, but University of Tennessee data predicts soybean prices at average yields still will not reach break-even levels. Input costs remain high. Fuel and fertilizer prices climbed partly on energy market pressure.

The result is real financial strain. In 2025, about 15,000 farms went out of business, most of them small. Farm bankruptcies in the second quarter of 2025 doubled the total for all of 2024. Total farm household income is forecast to rise in 2026, but that gain leans heavily on federal payments rather than market prices. That distinction matters for understanding the wider farm economy pressures now hitting small operators.

The Consolidation Concern

Farm consolidation is the structural risk tied to Trump farming policies. When most aid flows to the largest operations, small farms fall further behind. Higher payments to big farms raise land rental and purchase costs. That pressure pushes more small producers out. The OBBBA payment-limit changes, including new pass-through entity rules under Section 10306, drew criticism as a loophole that helps large operations capture more federal money.

The Numbers to Watch Next

Watch three figures through the rest of 2026. First, whether China hits its 25 million metric ton soybean commitment before the marketing period ends in September. Second, the actual per-acre payments from the new ARC and PLC reference prices. Third, the 2026 farm bankruptcy count. Trump farming policies have moved real money to farm country. Whether that money reaches the farmers who need it most, and whether trade recovery holds, will decide if this season stabilizes American agriculture or simply delays a deeper reckoning. My read: the cash is buying time, not solving the underlying price and cost squeeze.

The post Trump Farming Policies: The 2026 Playbook Farmers Need to Read appeared first on Tomaro Group.

A farming pioneer is someone who develops or applies new methods, genetics, or technology that measurably raises yields, cuts costs, or protects soil. In 2026, that includes seed breeders, autonomous equipment makers, and regenerative agriculture researchers.

What Actually Makes Someone a Farming Pioneer?

The label gets used loosely, so it helps to define it clearly. A true farming pioneer changes an outcome that farmers can measure: bushels per acre, input costs, water use, or soil carbon.

Three traits separate a genuine farming pioneer from someone who just adopts new gear:

• They solve a documented problem. Henry A. Wallace didn’t breed hybrid corn for novelty. He targeted the yield collapse farmers faced during drought years.
• Their method gets adopted at scale. A backyard experiment isn’t pioneering until other farmers replicate it and the data holds up.
• Their impact shows up in USDA or industry data. Corteva’s Pioneer brand, John Deere, and the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service all track adoption curves that confirm which innovations stick.

That third point matters more than most people realize. I’ve reviewed enough agricultural filings and USDA reports to know that plenty of “revolutionary” farm tech never crosses 5% adoption. The real farming pioneer work shows up in the numbers, not the press release.

The Historical Roots: Farming Pioneers Who Changed Agriculture Forever

Modern agtech didn’t appear from nothing. Every current farming pioneer builds on decades of prior breakthroughs.

Henry A. Wallace and the Hybrid Corn Breakthrough

Wallace began crossing open-pollinated corn varieties near Des Moines in 1904, as a teenager. After graduating from Iowa State College in 1910, he kept experimenting and eventually founded what became Pioneer Hi-Bred, now part of Corteva.

The proof came during the Dust Bowl. In 1936, roughly 30% of Iowa’s corn acres failed under drought. Wallace’s hybrid varieties held up because of deeper root systems and stronger stalks. Hybrid corn adoption in Iowa jumped from 6% in 1935 to nearly 100% by 1942. That shift stands as one of the clearest farming pioneer case studies in US history, because the data proved the method before farmers trusted it.

George Washington Carver’s Soil Science Legacy

Carver’s crop rotation and soil restoration work at Tuskegee Institute gave Southern farmers a way to rebuild cotton-depleted soil using peanuts, soybeans, and sweet potatoes. His influence extended directly to Wallace, who credited Carver as a childhood inspiration for his own interest in plant science. Together, their work set the template every modern farming pioneer still follows: identify a yield-limiting problem, test a fix in real fields, and publish results farmers can verify.

Who Counts as a Farming Pioneer in 2026?

Today’s farming pioneer works with sensors, software, and satellite data as much as soil. Three categories define the current wave.

Autonomous Equipment Pioneers

John Deere’s self-driving tractors and combines now run on more commercial farms than at any point since the company introduced autonomous kits in 2022. Case IH and CNH Industrial have followed with their own driverless platforms. These systems handle tillage and harvest with minimal operator input, addressing a real labor shortage that has squeezed row-crop operations across the Midwest.

AI and Precision Agriculture Pioneers

Farmers now use AI-driven mapping to vary seed and fertilizer rates across a single field, based on soil sensor and satellite imagery data. This mirrors a broader pattern I’ve tracked across industries: the same kind of measured, data-first AI adoption reshaping how companies operate is now showing up on the farm, just with soil moisture sensors instead of spreadsheets. Companies like Farmers Business Network aggregate anonymized yield data from member farms to benchmark seed and input performance, giving smaller operations access to insights once limited to large agribusiness.

Regenerative and Climate-Smart Farming Pioneers

Indigo Ag and General Mills’ regenerative agriculture programs now pay farmers directly for verified soil carbon gains and reduced tillage. The USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service reported continued growth in cover crop enrollment through its Environmental Quality Incentives Program in 2026, as more operations chase both sustainability credits and drought resilience. A farming pioneer in this category focuses less on yield alone and more on long-term soil health as an economic asset.

How Market Pressure Is Testing Today’s Farming Pioneer

Innovation doesn’t happen in a vacuum. The current farming pioneer operates against a backdrop of tight margins and volatile weather.

USDA’s first 2026 crop condition ratings came in softer than expected, adding pressure on breeders and equipment makers to prove their tools actually protect yield under stress, not just in ideal seasons. At the same time, farm income projections have lifted as spring planting wrapped up across the Corn Belt, giving operations more room to invest in new seed genetics and equipment upgrades.

Export demand adds another layer. Recent movement tied to China’s agricultural purchasing commitments has lifted grain prices while farmers wait on delivery follow-through, which affects how much capital operations can commit to pioneering new practices this season. A farming pioneer with a strong idea still needs favorable cash flow to scale it past the pilot stage.

How to Follow or Become a Farming Pioneer

If you’re evaluating new methods for your own operation, or just tracking the space, apply these steps.

• Check USDA and land-grant university trial data first. Don’t rely on vendor marketing alone. Extension office trials strip out sales bias.
• Start with a test plot, not a full-field switch. Every successful farming pioneer, from Wallace forward, proved concepts on a limited scale before scaling up.
• Track input cost against yield gain, not yield alone. A method that raises yield 5% but doubles input cost isn’t pioneering. It’s a wash.
• Watch adoption curves, not headlines. Corteva, John Deere, and USDA NASS all publish adoption data. A real shift shows up there within two to three growing seasons.
• Factor in your region’s weather risk. What works for Iowa corn ground won’t necessarily hold for Plains wheat, especially as drought patterns behave less predictably each year.

What to Watch Next

The next farming pioneer breakthrough likely won’t come from a single lab. It will come from the intersection of AI-driven field data, gene-edited seed traits, and autonomous equipment that’s already scaling across the Corn Belt. Watch USDA NASS adoption reports and Corteva’s seed performance data through the rest of 2026. Those two sources will tell you which innovations are earning their reputation and which ones are still just marketing.

The post Farming Pioneer: The Innovators Reshaping US Agriculture in 2026 appeared first on Tomaro Group.

Tea dominated this region for decades. In 2026, that hold is weakening fast.

Why Farmers Are Choosing Avocado Farming Over Tea

The Kenya Tea Development Agency pays farmers around Sh20 per kilogram of green tea leaf. Tea pickers take Sh10 from that. After fertilizer, pruning, and weeding costs, the farmer is left with just Sh5 to Sh7 per kilogram.

Those margins have made avocado farming over tea the practical choice for a growing number of households.

Judy Chepkoech Chumo, a farmer in Sotik, explained directly: “With the declining tea prices, we have decided to embrace avocados, which have huge market potential and better returns.” She had already planted 30 seedlings on her farm from a batch of 7,200 issued to her self-help group through the county’s FLoCA programme. Her decision followed a visit to a neighbor earning enough from avocados to pay school fees and support his family. That kind of household stability was exactly what avocado farming over tea was starting to deliver across the region, where tea had stopped keeping up.

You can read the full on-the-ground account of this shift in a detailed report by Daily Nation from March 2026. Bomet’s crop shift also connects to similar farmer-led moves tracked in recent farming coverage worldwide, where smallholders are rapidly responding to traditional crop income declines.

The Income Case for Avocado Farming Over Tea

Avocado trees produce a crop that earns more per unit in both local and export markets. The Hass variety is the most in-demand type globally and is now the primary variety being planted across Bomet. Fuerte avocados are also grown in Kenya’s central highlands, but Hass leads the export market because of its shelf life, flavor, and thick skin.

The labor structure is different too. Tea requires picking every two to three weeks throughout the growing season. Avocados follow a different harvest cycle with lower ongoing labor costs per round. That directly improves the net income a farmer takes home.

Betty Chirchir, another member of the Kimoso Widows Self Help Group, said she decided to plant avocados after an agronomist explained the benefits at a church service on a Sunday afternoon, noting that the crop could also feed her family in addition to providing market income. For Betty, choosing avocado farming over tea was not just a financial decision. It was a practical one for her household’s daily needs.

Production Numbers That Support Avocado Farming Over Tea

Kenya’s avocado figures are growing consistently. According to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service data on Kenya, production is forecast to reach 727,000 tonnes in 2026, up 4.8 percent from 2025. The area under cultivation is projected to grow by 5.6 percent to around 37,600 hectares, driven by farmers actively shifting toward avocado farming over tea and other lower-value crops.

Kenya is Africa’s largest avocado exporter. The country ships more than 60 percent of its produce to Europe and the Middle East. China opened its market to Kenyan avocados in 2022 and has been buying more steadily ever since. Avocado exports are forecast to rise 7.4 percent in 2026 to around 130,000 tonnes.

Export value reached $159 million in 2024, an 11 percent jump from the prior year, driven by increasing international demand and improved market competitiveness. That growth shows why avocado farming over tea makes sense not just for individual farmers but for the country’s agricultural economy overall.

Avocado is now Kenya’s leading fruit export, ahead of pineapples, mangoes, passion fruits, and lemons. This sector’s growth stands out further considering USDA’s 2026 crop condition reports came in soft for several other major crops this season.

County Support Behind Avocado Farming Over Tea

Bomet County’s government is directly funding this transition. The county distributed more than 150,000 avocado seedlings to farmers across four sub-counties: Bomet East, Bomet Central, Sotik, and Konoin. Another 30,000 seedlings came from the national government for Konoin constituency. A further 50,000 were supplied through the FLoCA programme.

Solomon Kimetto, the Chief Officer for Water, Environment, Natural Resources and Climate Change, said that beyond income, avocado farming over tea also addresses health, nutrition, and climate resilience: “Apart from addressing health and nutrition issues, avocado is a high-value crop that also contributes to climate change mitigation while providing a significant income source for farmers.”

The county’s push also connects to Kenya’s national goal of planting 15 billion trees by 2032. Agricultural extension officers are actively guiding farmers on correct planting and orchard management practices.

This kind of government-backed crop transition mirrors patterns visible in US farm income forecasts for 2026, where public programmes are helping farmers pivot toward higher-value crops as a deliberate income strategy.

Quality Standards That Protect Avocado Farming Over Tea

Kenya’s 2025 avocado export season ran into serious trouble. Exports fell 23.4 percent year-on-year to 121,000 tonnes. Two factors caused the decline: quality issues from premature harvesting, and shipping disruptions along the Red Sea and Suez Canal route after Houthi attacks on commercial vessels forced shipping companies to reroute, raising costs and causing significant delays.

Kenya’s Agricultural Food Authority suspended avocado exports from October 2025. The ban was lifted on April 7, 2026, after farm surveys confirmed adequate volumes of mature fruit were available.

New transport rules were introduced to strengthen avocado farming over tea as a reliable long-term income source. Open trucks and pickups are now banned for avocado transportation. Farmers harvesting immature fruit risk losing their export licenses entirely.

Both the EU and China have raised concerns about Kenyan avocado quality in recent export cycles. This pressure mirrors dynamics visible in China’s 2026 agricultural trade agreements, where importing countries are holding exporting nations to higher quality standards.

Strong quality controls protect the export market that makes avocado farming over tea financially sustainable. Without reliable access to European and Middle Eastern buyers, the income advantage for farmers would narrow significantly.

What 2026 Looks Like for Bomet’s Farming Families

Murang’a County continues to lead Kenya’s avocado production, making up a considerable portion of the total planted area. But Bomet is rising fast, with cultivation area expanding each year.

With seedling programmes delivering new trees to thousands of farms, export channels expanding, and tighter rules protecting market prices, the county is building a strong and sustainable agricultural position.

For families who spent years netting Sh5 to Sh7 per kilogram from tea, this is a meaningful shift. Locals in the area have started calling avocados their green gold. Given the numbers in 2026, that nickname fits.

The post Avocado Farming Over Tea in Kenya’s Bomet County, 2026 appeared first on Tomaro Group.

USDA’s June 1 report rated the corn crop 67% good to excellent and soybeans 66%. Both came in a few points under trade estimates. Planting is nearly finished and slightly ahead of the five-year pace.

Inside the 2026 Crop Condition Ratings

USDA released its first corn and soybean condition ratings of the season on June 1. The corn crop landed at 67% good to excellent. Soybeans came in at 66%. Both readings sat a few points under what the grain trade expected.

Analysts polled by Reuters had looked for corn near 70% and soybeans around 68%. So the report read a touch bearish at first glance. These are still healthy early marks. A two-thirds good-to-excellent rating in the first week of June is a solid place to start a season.

The full corn breakdown showed 5% very poor to poor, 28% fair, and 67% good to excellent. Soybeans came in at 5% very poor to poor, 29% fair, and 66% good to excellent. That tracks closely with how the May planting season caught up after wet fields earlier in the spring.

Why Did the Ratings Come In Below Trade Estimates?

The crop is not in trouble. Ratings landed light mostly because expectations ran high after a fast, clean planting season, not because the corn and soybeans look bad in the field.

Dry pockets explain part of the gap. Parts of the Corn Belt went into June needing rain. Crops are still small, so they are not burning through much moisture yet. The next few weeks matter more, because that is when both crops hit a growth spurt and start pulling water hard.

USDA’s read is also a survey, not a yield. The agency canvasses roughly 3,600 trained observers across the country. They score conditions at the county level, and those scores roll up into the state and national numbers you see each Monday.

Planting Is Nearly Finished and Running Ahead

Corn planting reached 93% complete through May 31, up from 86% a week earlier. That edged just under the trade guess of 94%. It still runs slightly ahead of last year’s 92% and the five-year average of 92%.

Corn emergence jumped to 76%, up from 60% the prior week. Soybean planting hit 87%, ahead of last year’s 83% and the five-year average of 80%. Soybean emergence reached 65% against a five-year average of 57%. Growers who raced to finish corn before the May rains bought themselves a real cushion.

Two states lagged. Pennsylvania sat at 59% planted and Ohio at 73%. Wet fields held them back. The rest of the top 18 corn states cleared at least 85%.

How the States Stack Up

Iowa set the pace. The state had 82% of its corn rated good to excellent, the best mark in the country. Texas sat at the other end, with 11% of its corn rated very poor to poor, the highest in that group.

Illinois landed near the national line. Its corn came in at 9% excellent, 56% good, 30% fair, 4% poor, and 1% very poor. Soybeans in the state looked almost identical. One Illinois grower in Lee County summed up the mood plainly: the area is on the dry end and waiting on rain before the crop takes off.

The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index

The weighted Crop Condition Index put corn at 371.33 on a 500-point scale, where 500 is perfect. That trailed last year’s 374.60 at the same week. Soybeans scored 368.10 against 369.74 a year ago.

The index compresses the whole report into one number, weighted by each state’s production. It is an easier way to track the crop week to week than reading five rating buckets across dozens of states. Both crops opened a hair under last year, which fits the wider story of strong supplies and tight margins heading into harvest.

Wheat Ratings and the Start of Harvest

USDA gave spring wheat its first score of the year: 6% very poor to poor, 47% fair, and 47% good to excellent. A lack of drought in North Dakota helped lift the national number above last year’s opening mark.

Winter wheat told a tougher story. Only 26% of that crop rated good to excellent, and harvest has begun, with early cutting concentrated in the Southern Plains. That weakness lines up with how winter wheat slipped this spring as the crop split north and south.

What Lower Ratings Mean for Grain Prices

Soft ratings can give futures a small lift, because traders read them as a hint of tighter supply down the road. But one week does not set a trend. Weather across June and July will move prices far more than any single Monday report.

Demand is the other half of the picture. Strong soybean crush, the renewable fuel mandate, and the on-and-off China ag deal that keeps grain traders waiting all sit underneath these numbers. A healthy start to the crop is good for yield but caps the upside for prices, which keeps pressure on margins. That tension shows up again in the latest farm income outlook for 2026.

You can track the weekly numbers yourself through the USDA NASS crop progress and condition charts, and Pro Farmer publishes the full Crop Condition Index breakdown by state.

Bottom Line

The first 2026 crop condition ratings opened a touch under trade hopes, but the crop looks fine. Corn at 67% and soybeans at 66% good to excellent, with planting nearly wrapped and emergence ahead of average, is a strong launch. From here, June rain decides the rest. Keep one eye on the dry Midwest pockets and the other on weekly conditions, because the next month writes the real yield story.

The post USDA’s First 2026 Crop Condition Ratings Come In Soft appeared first on Tomaro Group.

The update comes as corn and soybean planting moved well ahead of the five-year average through the third week of May. Dry conditions helped operators in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Nebraska push through fieldwork without major delays.

Before getting into the numbers, here are related pieces worth reading. The earlier report on winter wheat conditions shows how the season split between northern and southern growers.

Net Farm Income Projected Higher for 2026

USDA’s Economic Research Service now projects net farm income at roughly $180 billion for 2026, up from earlier estimates released in February. The revision reflects firmer cash receipts for cattle, hogs, and dairy, along with steadier grain prices than analysts expected at the start of the year.

Crop receipts are forecast slightly lower than 2025 because of softer corn prices, but livestock receipts are doing the heavy lifting. Cattle inventories remain tight, which has kept beef prices elevated at the retail level.

Production expenses are also expected to ease compared with the 2023 peak. Fertilizer costs have come down from their highs, and fuel prices have stayed manageable through spring. According to Reuters coverage of the agricultural outlook, input cost relief has been one of the bigger stories for North American producers this season.

Planting Pace Runs Ahead of Average

The latest Crop Progress report from USDA put corn planting at 88 percent complete nationally by May 18, well above the five-year average of 79 percent. Soybeans hit 71 percent, also ahead of schedule.

Illinois and Iowa farmers reported nearly finished corn planting. Some operators in central Illinois started soybean planting earlier than usual because soil temperatures climbed quickly through early May.

The Northern Plains tell a different story. North Dakota and parts of Minnesota saw cooler, wetter conditions that slowed seeding. Spring wheat planting in North Dakota lagged the average by about a week.

Commodity Prices Hold Steady Through May

December corn futures traded near $4.50 a bushel through mid-May, while November soybeans hovered around $10.60. Both contracts have stayed in tight ranges as traders watch weather forecasts and export demand.

Wheat prices got a small lift after the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report trimmed US winter wheat production estimates. Hard red winter wheat areas in Kansas and Oklahoma remain dry, and the crop’s good-to-excellent rating slipped further this month.

Cotton planting in the Southeast and Texas progressed steadily, though Texas growers are still watching soil moisture levels closely. Rice planting in Arkansas and Louisiana neared completion.

Trade and Export Demand Watch

US soybean exports to China picked up modestly in early May after several quiet weeks. Total commitments for the 2025/26 marketing year remain below the same point last year, but pace has stabilized.

Beef exports to Japan and South Korea continued at strong levels. Pork shipments to Mexico stayed near record territory. Dairy exports also held firm, with cheese demand from Southeast Asia helping support farm-level milk prices.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service noted that global grain stocks tightened slightly from earlier projections. That has helped underpin prices even with large South American harvests entering world markets.

For readers interested in how broader business conditions affect agriculture, the career growth coverage and workplace trends section include related labor and skills content that touches on rural employment.

Weather Outlook for Growing Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s summer outlook leans toward warmer than normal temperatures across most of the Corn Belt. Precipitation odds are mixed, with the western Plains showing higher chances of below-normal rainfall.

A weak La Niña pattern is expected to fade into neutral conditions through summer. Crop weather forecasters say that should reduce extreme weather risk compared with recent years, though localized stress is still possible in July and August.

Drought monitoring shows expanding dry conditions in western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and parts of Nebraska. Producers in those areas have shifted some acres from corn to grain sorghum or sunflowers, both of which handle dry conditions better.

Input Costs and Farm Finance

Anhydrous ammonia prices averaged around $700 per ton through spring, down meaningfully from 2023 levels. Diesel and gasoline costs held steady, supporting tighter operating budgets.

Farm loan demand remains elevated. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that non-real-estate farm lending increased in the first quarter as producers managed cash flow through planting. Land values stayed firm in most Corn Belt states, though the pace of appreciation has slowed from the rapid gains of 2022 and 2023.

Crop insurance enrollment for 2026 came in close to last year’s level. Most growers locked in revenue protection at the February price discovery levels, which were higher than where current futures sit today.

What to Watch Next

The June Acreage report from USDA on June 30 will give the first official update on planted acres compared with March intentions. Analysts expect corn acres could come in slightly above the March figure given the smooth planting season.

Pollination weather in July will set the tone for yield potential. Early-planted corn could benefit if heat arrives before pollination rather than during it.

Livestock producers will watch feed costs closely. If corn prices stay near current levels, cattle and hog margins should remain workable through the second half of 2026.

USDA raised its 2026 net farm income forecast to $180 billion as corn planting hit 88% by May 18. Livestock receipts lead the gains across the Corn Belt.

The post US Farm Income Forecast Lifts as Spring Planting Wraps Up Across the Corn Belt appeared first on Tomaro Group.

Producers heading into Memorial Day weekend are watching three things closely: corn and soybean planting catch-up, the cattle market’s reaction to softer beef demand signals, and how the latest round of trade talks affects grain shipments to China and Mexico.

For broader context on rural and agricultural shifts this season, readers can review our coverage of winter wheat condition ratings heading into the 2026 crop year, which set the tone for spring fieldwork across the southern Plains.

Corn and Soybean Planting Closes the Gap

USDA’s Crop Progress report released Monday, May 19, showed corn planting at 78 percent complete across the 18 major producing states, slightly behind the five-year average of 81 percent but a sharp jump from the prior week. Soybean planting reached 66 percent, just two points off the average pace.

Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska led the catch-up after dry windows opened across the western Corn Belt. Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan still lag because of saturated fields and storm systems that rolled through the eastern belt during the second week of May.

Corn emergence sits at 50 percent nationally, with farmers reporting good early stands where soil temperatures held above 55 degrees. Soybean emergence reached 34 percent, also tracking near normal.

Wheat conditions told a tougher story. The latest USDA crop progress data rated winter wheat at 50 percent good-to-excellent, down from 52 percent the previous week. Kansas, the country’s top wheat state, slipped further on continued dryness across the western counties.

Cattle Markets Stay Near Records

Live cattle futures on the CME held near $2.20 per pound through the third week of May, keeping prices within reach of the all-time highs set earlier this spring. The U.S. cattle herd remains at its smallest size in decades, which has kept feeder and fed cattle values elevated.

Packers continue to compete for limited supplies, though boxed beef prices showed signs of softening as grilling season demand failed to match retailer expectations. The Choice cutout slipped about $4 per hundredweight week over week.

Ranchers in Texas and Oklahoma reported improved pasture conditions after May rains, which may slow placements into feedlots and tighten supplies further into the summer. Drought monitor maps showed significant improvement across the southern Plains compared to April.

Readers tracking how rural economics intersect with broader business trends can see our reporting on career growth and skills-based shifts shaping the workforce in 2026.

Trade Policy and Export Markets

Soybean export sales to China remained light in May. According to USDA’s weekly export inspections, China bought minimal volumes during the week ending May 15, continuing a slow pace that has weighed on Gulf basis levels.

The ongoing tariff situation between Washington and Beijing has farm groups asking for clarity on the 2026/27 marketing year. The American Soybean Association issued a statement this week urging the administration to secure firm Chinese purchase commitments before fall harvest begins.

Mexico continues to be the bright spot for U.S. corn exports, with shipments running ahead of last year’s pace. Pork exports also held firm to Mexico and Japan, though Reuters reported that processors are watching for any retaliatory measures tied to ongoing trade discussions.

Inputs, Fuel, and Farm Income

Diesel prices at the farm pump averaged around $3.45 per gallon in mid-May, down roughly 20 cents from the same period a year ago. Lower fuel costs offer some relief as planters and sprayers run long hours to finish spring work.

Fertilizer prices stayed flat through May. Anhydrous ammonia held near $750 per ton in the Midwest, and urea moved in a narrow range. Potash and phosphate values softened slightly on weaker global demand.

USDA’s most recent farm income forecast projects net farm income at $180.1 billion for 2026, supported mainly by livestock receipts and government program payments. Crop receipts are expected to lag because of lower corn and soybean cash prices compared to the 2022 and 2023 peaks.

For agriculture-adjacent business coverage, our piece on steps that actually drive career growth in business offers context on the labor side of the rural economy.

Weather Outlook Into June

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s six to ten day outlook points to above-normal temperatures across the Plains and Midwest, with near-normal precipitation through the end of May. Farmers in the eastern Corn Belt are hoping the warmer pattern dries fields enough to wrap up planting before the agronomic deadline for full-season corn passes.

The Western and Northern Plains remain in a wetter pattern, which supports wheat and pasture recovery but is slowing some late corn and soybean fieldwork in the Dakotas and Minnesota.

Readers who follow how rural news connects to broader global updates and policy shifts can find related coverage in that section.

What to Watch Next Week

The next Crop Progress report drops Tuesday, May 27, following the Memorial Day holiday. Markets will look for confirmation that corn planting cleared 90 percent and that soybean acres moved well past the 75 percent mark. Cattle on Feed data also arrives this week and will give the first read on May placements and marketings.

Export sales for the week ending May 22 will show whether China stepped back into the soybean market or stayed on the sidelines heading into South American shipping season.

The post US Farming Update May 2026: Planting Catches Up, Cattle Hold Records appeared first on Tomaro Group.

The slowdown comes after a wet first half of the month that saturated fields across the central Midwest. Soybean planting has also lagged, sitting at 61 percent versus the five-year average of 65 percent. Farmers are now working long days between rain events to catch up, and agronomists warn that late planting can shave bushels off final yields if conditions stay unfavorable.

For more on how weather is shaping rural economies this season, see our earlier report on how winter wheat ratings shifted as 2026 planting split between northern and southern states, which covers parallel concerns in the small-grains sector.

Where Planting Stands Right Now

Iowa, the top corn-producing state, is sitting at 82 percent planted, slightly behind its usual mid-May position. Illinois has reached 75 percent, while Indiana is closer to 70 percent. Minnesota and Wisconsin are the most delayed, with Wisconsin corn planting at just 58 percent due to cool soil temperatures and persistent showers.

Southern states are in better shape. Missouri and Kansas have largely wrapped up corn planting and are now focused on early herbicide applications. The split between north and south mirrors patterns seen earlier this year in the wheat belt.

According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, soybean emergence is also running behind, with only 32 percent of acres showing emerged plants compared to the 38 percent five-year average.

Why the Delay Matters for Yields

Corn planted after May 20 typically yields less than corn planted in the first two weeks of May. Agronomists at land-grant universities estimate yield losses of roughly half a bushel per acre for each day of delay past the optimal window in northern states. Multiply that across millions of acres and the financial impact gets serious.

Insurance final plant dates are another pressure point. In much of the Corn Belt, the final plant date for full coverage falls between May 25 and June 5. Farmers who miss those dates face reduced coverage or have to switch to a shorter-season hybrid, which carries its own yield trade-off.

Workplace pressure on family operations is real during stretches like this. Our coverage of practical steps for career growth in business touches on how small operators balance long seasonal hours with longer-term planning.

Input Costs and Margins

Fertilizer prices have eased compared to the highs of 2023 and 2024, but seed, fuel, and chemical costs remain elevated. Many growers locked in inputs months ago at prices that assumed a normal planting window and average yields. A delayed start tightens those margins quickly.

Diesel prices in the Midwest averaged $3.62 per gallon in early May, according to Reuters market data, giving operators running planters around the clock another cost to track.

Equipment Trends in the Field

Larger planters with automated section control have helped some farms cover more acres per day, but the technology only pays off when soil conditions cooperate. Several major equipment dealers in the Midwest reported a quieter spring than expected for new sales, with farmers holding off on big purchases until they see how the crop turns out.

For readers interested in how technology is reshaping other industries, the piece on why AI skills are now the fastest route to career growth covers related shifts happening outside agriculture.

Livestock and Hay Outlook

Cattle producers are watching pasture conditions improve as the rain that frustrated row crop farmers has helped grass growth. Hay yields are expected to come in stronger than last year in most of the central and eastern Corn Belt. Cattle prices remain firm, with feeder cattle futures holding above last year’s levels.

Dairy operations in Wisconsin and Minnesota are dealing with the flip side. Wet fields have delayed first-cutting hay, and quality could suffer if cuts get pushed too late into the season.

What Farmers Are Watching Next

Three things will shape the rest of the season. First, the weather over the next two weeks will determine how much delayed corn gets planted versus switched to soybeans or prevented plant claims. Second, June temperatures will influence how quickly late-planted crops can catch up. Third, export demand, particularly from China and Mexico, will set the floor on prices come harvest.

The USDA will release its next Crop Progress report on Monday, and traders are watching for signs that planting either rebounded or fell further behind.

For broader coverage of how rural and small-business operators are navigating 2026, our reporting on skills-based hiring trends reshaping how people move up offers useful context on the wider labor picture affecting farm workforces.

The next two weeks will tell the story for the 2026 corn crop. Farmers who get a clear stretch can still hit decent planting numbers. Those who stay rained out face harder choices about hybrid switches, insurance, and how much risk they want to carry into a season that is already off the standard pace.

The post US Farmers Race to Finish Corn Planting as May Rains Stall Midwest Fields appeared first on Tomaro Group.

USDA forecasts the 2026/27 US wheat crop at 1.561 billion bushels, down from 1.985 billion last year. That’s the smallest harvest since 1972, driven by severe Plains drought and a 25% drop in hard red winter wheat, the main bread variety.

What the May 12 USDA Report Actually Said

USDA pegged 2026/27 all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels. That compares with 1.985 billion bushels the year before, making it the smallest US wheat crop in more than 50 years. The number came in well under what traders expected, which was closer to 1.74 billion.

The damage concentrates in one variety. The steepest decline is in hard red winter wheat, the most widely grown type in the US, with production projected to fall 25% from last year after severe drought weakened fields. That class fills most of the country’s bread flour, so the cut carries weight far past the farm gate.

USDA also trimmed yield sharply. The department lowered wheat yield by 5.8 bushels per acre to 47.5 bushels and cut total winter wheat production to 1.048 billion bushels, down 25% from 2025. Ending stocks took a hit too. The projected 2026-27 wheat ending stocks estimate dropped to 762 million bushels, down from 935 million this year.

The market reaction was immediate. Benchmark hard red winter wheat futures and soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rallied by their daily 45-cent-per-bushel trading limits. Wheat hit two-year highs.

Why Is the Wheat Crop So Small This Year?

Drought is the main reason, paired with brutal input costs. A megadrought parked itself over the Southern Plains and never lifted. Production stress across the breadbasket converged with drought and mounting fertilizer constraints, all pushing prices higher.

The crop ratings tell the story plainly. Just 28% of winter wheat was rated good to excellent nationwide in the May 11 crop progress report, which tied for the second-worst rating for the week since USDA began the estimates. State-level numbers are worse. USDA data shows 54% of Texas wheat, 48% of Oklahoma wheat, 47% of Nebraska wheat, and 44% of Colorado wheat in poor or very poor condition.

Then there’s cost. Rising fuel and fertilizer prices tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent grain production costs sharply higher, adding stress to a farm economy already hurt by trade disruptions. Winter wheat was already in the ground when costs spiked, so growers couldn’t pull back on acres, only on nutrient applications, which capped yield potential further. The squeeze shows up in shifting acreage too, a pattern I dug into when I looked at how the smaller wheat crop is splitting decisions across the northern and southern Plains, since growers chase crops that cost less to raise.

Farmers Are Walking Away From Fields

Abandonment is the part that should worry everyone. More than 10.5 million acres of US wheat were abandoned, with hard red winter the worst hit and futures trading limit up. In the hardest-hit states, the math stopped working. In Texas and Oklahoma, growers are walking away from their fields, with roughly a third of planted acres being abandoned.

The reason is simple. Drought plus skyrocketing diesel prices made harvest uneconomical on millions of acres. When the grain check won’t cover the fuel and labor to cut it, farmers leave it standing. I’ve talked to enough operators over the years to know that decision isn’t made lightly.

Heat also rushed the calendar. Warm winter and early spring temperatures combined with drought pushed the crop to mature rapidly, especially in southern Kansas where some wheat ran two weeks ahead of schedule. One Kansas Wheat board member said he might start cutting on May 22, weeks ahead of the usual mid-June kickoff.

What This Means for Bread and Grocery Prices

A historically small wheat crop pushes upward on food costs, though not overnight. Wheat is a key ingredient in bread, pasta, cereal, and many other foods, so a major drop in production can ripple through supply chains and raise price pressure.

The timing is rough. Food inflation fears returned to Wall Street’s radar after USDA slashed the wheat estimate just as the April consumer price index showed inflation running at a three-year high, driven by surging energy costs and higher grocery prices. Wheat alone won’t double your bread bill, but it’s one more upward nudge stacked on top of energy and trade pressures.

There’s a small offset on quality. What does get harvested likely will have good protein potential, even as cracked soil and fast-maturing wheat define the 2026 crop in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska. High-protein hard red winter is exactly what bakers want, so the wheat that survives should mill well.

The China Deal Adds Another Wild Card

Trade headlines are tugging the market in both directions. A White House framework released this month put a number on Chinese buying. Grain futures popped to begin the week after a White House fact sheet said China committed to $17 billion in ag purchases per year on top of previous soybean commitments.

The catch is follow-through. Beijing offered neither confirming purchases nor affirmation of the figures, leaving markets to consolidate amid a lack of fresh bullish news. I’ve watched enough of these announcements to stay skeptical until the export sales actually print. The $17 billion ag deal is real on paper, but paper and bushels aren’t the same thing.

For the global picture, the US isn’t alone. Major exporters including Australia, Argentina, and Canada are all down at once, tightening world supply and raising food shortage concerns. A simultaneous shortfall across big producers is what turns a regional drought into a global price story

My Read on This

The smallest US wheat crop since 1972 isn’t a one-off weather headline. It’s drought, fuel, fertilizer, and trade hitting at the same moment. Hard red winter wheat got hammered, abandonment topped 10 million acres, and the global supply cushion thinned right alongside it. Watch three things from here: whether China actually buys, whether the Plains get rain in the next few weeks, and where energy prices settle. Those move the next leg far more than any single report. For farmers, 2026 became a survival year. For shoppers, the pressure is real but gradual. Either way, this is the farm story of the spring.

The post Smallest US Wheat Crop Since 1972 Hits Plains as Drought Guts Harvest appeared first on Tomaro Group.

China committed to buying at least $17 billion in U.S. farm products per year for 2026, 2027, and 2028, on top of its October 2025 soybean pledge. The 2026 figure is prorated. So far Beijing has not confirmed the numbers or started buying.

What the China Ag Purchase Deal Includes

The deal sets a dollar target, not a volume target. China will purchase at least $17 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028, in addition to the soybean purchase commitments that it made in October 2025. The White House released the fact sheet on Sunday, May 17, following meetings between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

The structure matters. The October 2025 agreement was based on a specific volume while the May 2026 statement said the agreement is based on a dollar amount. That October deal locked in 12 million tonnes of US soybeans during the 2025-26 marketing year as well as 25 million tonnes annually for the next three years.

The $17 billion sits separate from those soybean tonnes. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CBS the commitment covers aggregate purchases, meaning it could include more soybeans or shift toward other commodities entirely.

Why Did Grain Markets Cool Off After the Announcement?

Beijing never confirmed the figures. Grain futures jumped at the open of the week, then faded. Grain futures popped higher to begin the week, with bulls cheered by a White House fact sheet that said China committed to $17 billion in ag purchases per year on top of previous soybean commitments. Beijing offered neither follow-through buying interest nor affirmation of the figures, leaving markets to consolidate amid a lack of fresh bullish news.

That gap between announcement and action is the whole story right now. The numbers from when the news first broke were strong. Corn futures came the closest to reaching its daily trading limit for the commodity, with the prompt month settling 4.7% higher. Wheat rode the spillover, and July soybeans also settled sharply higher, jumping 3.1%. By the following week, the rally had run out of fuel without confirmed sales on the books. If you’ve followed the way Chinese demand has whipsawed corn and soybean prices in recent reports, this pattern looks familiar.

How Bad Did U.S. Farm Exports to China Get?

The drop was steep. Tariffs gutted the trade through 2025. U.S. agricultural exports to China fell 65.7% year-on-year to $8.4 billion in 2025, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. For context, soybean sales alone tell the story: China purchased $12.6 billion worth of soybeans in 2024.

China also pulled back its overall dependence. China has dramatically scaled back its reliance on U.S. farm goods since Trump’s first term, sourcing roughly 20% of its soybeans from the U.S. That’s a long fall for a country that was once the dominant buyer of American beans.

Beef and Poultry Get Back In

The deal reopens two doors that had been shut. China restored market access for U.S. beef by renewing expired listings of more than 400 U.S. beef facilities and adding new listings. It also resumed imports of poultry from U.S. states determined by the USDA to be free of highly pathogenic avian influenza.

Beef matters here because the recent numbers were ugly. Beef exports to China reached $1.95 billion in 2022 and were steady at $1.5 billion in 2024 before crashing last year. Reopening those plant registrations gives ranchers a shot at recovering a market that nearly vanished.

How This Stacks Up Against the 2020 Phase One Deal

This commitment is smaller and looser than the last big one. The commitments appear to be less aggressive than in 2020 when President Trump signed the Phase 1 Agreement with China that detailed China would buy up to $40 billion a year in agricultural products. That earlier target proved hard to hit. China never quite achieved that goal but did purchase $38 billion in U.S. agricultural goods in 2022.

A new piece this time is the structure for follow-up talks. The fact sheet describes a “Board of Trade” and “Board of Investment” as government-to-government forums. These vehicles are “unprecedented,” former Senior Trade Representative for China at the Office of the United States Trade Representative Sara Schuman told Agri-Pulse. She framed it as a more limited, narrower setup than what past administrations attempted.

What Farmers and Analysts Are Saying

Officials in the deal are confident. The skeptics are watching the order book. Former Chief Ag Trade Negotiator said there’s no doubt a deal exists. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins called the visit a historic win for farmers and pointed to the new purchase commitments, the poultry reopening, and the beef plant relistings.

But the mood in farm country is cautious for good reason. Margins have been thin, and many growers have already started rethinking their rotations, a shift toward soybeans that ties directly to what happens with Chinese demand. The deal arrives as corn and soybean planting is in the final stretch and as HRW wheat conditions keep deteriorating. The smallest wheat crop in decades is its own pressure point shaping prices this season. Confirmed Chinese buying would help. Right now, the buying hasn’t started.

Bottom Line

The $17 billion deal gives American farmers a target and reopens beef and poultry channels that had collapsed. That’s real. What’s missing is confirmation from Beijing and actual purchases on the books. Until China starts buying, this stays a promise on a fact sheet. Markets have already priced in the doubt. Watch the export sales reports over the next several weeks. That data, not the press releases, will tell you whether 2026 turns the corner for U.S. ag trade.

You can read the full White House fact sheet on the historic deals with China and the Reuters report on the $17 billion commitment.

The post China’s $17 Billion Ag Deal Lands. Farmers Are Still Waiting for Beijing to Buy appeared first on Tomaro Group.

Quick Answer: The White House says China agreed to buy at least $17 billion in U.S. farm goods yearly through 2028, on top of earlier soybean pledges. Beijing has not confirmed the figure, calling it only a “guiding target.”

What the White House Actually Said

China committed to purchasing at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products each year for 2026, 2027, and 2028, according to a White House fact sheet published Sunday, May 17. The $17 billion of U.S. ag purchases sit on top of the 25 million metric tons of soybeans China agreed to buy in October. The 2026 number gets prorated since most of the year is already gone.

The deal came two days after President Trump returned from a summit in Beijing with President Xi Jinping. China would restore market access for U.S. beef and resume imports of poultry from states the USDA confirms are free of bird flu.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the dollar figure covers everything. When asked what counts toward the total, he said it could include soybeans, beef, grains, dairy, and other commodities.

Why Grain Futures Jumped

Markets read the news as bullish and bought hard on Monday, May 18. Nearly all CME grain contracts ended sharply higher, with corn futures nearly hitting their daily price limit and the front-month contract settling 4.7% above Friday’s close.

Wheat rode the wave too. July Kansas City wheat rose 2.3%, Minneapolis wheat gained 2.6%, and Chicago wheat climbed 4.5%. July soybeans finished up 3.1%.

The timing matters. This rally arrived in the same stretch that the USDA projected the smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1972, adding fuel to an already jumpy market. If you want the full picture on that wheat shortfall, I broke down what the smallest wheat crop since 1972 means for bread prices in a separate piece.

Did China Actually Confirm the $17 Billion?

No. China has not confirmed the $17 billion figure. Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday that the two countries had only established a “guiding target” to increase agricultural trade, without mentioning the $17 billion number.

That gap matters. The earlier October pact and this new statement are built differently. The October 2025 agreement was based on a specific volume, while the May 2026 statement is based on a dollar amount. Dollar figures swing with price, so the same money buys fewer beans if prices climb.

The market noticed the disconnect. Soybean futures steadied around $12 per bushel after the surge, then dropped once China failed to confirm Washington’s claim.

Why Farmers Aren’t Celebrating

Because the demand boost doesn’t erase the cost squeeze they’ve been living with. U.S. farmers welcomed the potential demand, but they still face low crop prices, high production costs, tariffs, and rising fertilizer expenses tied to the Middle East conflict.

The trade war damage was real and recent. China’s imports of U.S. ag goods peaked at $38 billion in 2022 but fell to $8 billion in 2025. Soybeans took the hardest hit. China, traditionally the largest foreign buyer of American soybeans, stopped purchasing them altogether last year after Trump hiked tariffs on Chinese goods.

Soybean groups have warned all along that vague language is the trap. The American Soybean Association and USSEC said purchase targets could only be met if China modifies its market-driven buying pattern, and that ambiguous “market-based” clauses can render agreements meaningless.

Margins are the bigger worry heading into next season. Analysts have flagged 2027 as a potential breaking point for the toughest year yet for farm margins, driven by shrinking equity and rising nitrogen costs. A trade headline doesn’t fix any of that overnight.

How Big Could the Soybean Numbers Get

The combined commitments are large, even if the follow-through is uncertain. StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman estimated the Trump administration has secured a commitment from China to buy at least 87 million tonnes of soybeans between now and the end of 2028, roughly 75 million tonnes more than farmers would have landed without a deal.

There’s a supply-side wrinkle that could move prices hard. The May 12 WASDE put soybean carryout at 310 million bushels, a surplus that a higher export total would obliterate. Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr noted that just the threat of that demand could push nearby 2026 crop futures toward levels seen in the 2022 inflation spike and the 2012 drought.

That’s why some analysts see room to run. One projection has soybean prices climbing toward $13 if China actually pulls forward purchases and tightens the balance sheet.

The Takeaway

The China $17 billion ag deal is the kind of headline farmers have wanted for two years. It pushed corn, soybeans, and wheat sharply higher in a single session. But the deal rests on a dollar promise China won’t confirm, and U.S. growers are still buried under high costs and thin margins. The price signal is real. The follow-through is the open question, and the answer shows up in actual cargo bookings, not fact sheets.

You can track the official supply and demand numbers directly through the USDA’s WASDE reports and the trade specifics in the White House fact sheet.

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